The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has projected that Nigeria’s inflation will remain elevated in the second half of 2026, averaging 15.5 percent for the period and the full year.
The projection is contained in the NESG’s 2026 outlook report, titled “Turning Potential into Progress.”
According to the group, persistent insecurity in major farming communities, climate-related disruptions, particularly flooding, and high transportation costs linked to logistics challenges are expected to sustain inflationary pressures in the second half of the year.
The NESG also identified election-related spending, seasonal demand during the festive period and relatively high energy costs as factors that could trigger temporary cost-push inflationary pressures in H2 2026.
“However, these pressures could be partly offset by continued exchange rate stability, the lagged effects of tight monetary policy, and favourable base effects,” the group noted.
Economy projected to grow 4.2%
Reviewing Nigeria’s economic performance in the first half of 2026, the NESG said the economy is expected to grow by 4.2 percent for the full year, driven by improved performance across the oil, manufacturing, agricultural and services sectors.
The group projected that economic growth would strengthen to 4.5 percent in the second half of 2026.
“Economic growth is expected to strengthen to 4.5 percent in the second half of 2026, bringing full-year gross domestic product (GDP) growth to approximately 4.2 percent,” the report stated.
Oil production, refining to support growth
The NESG said the oil sector is expected to sustain its growth trajectory, supported by improved domestic crude oil production, better security conditions and the gradual implementation of upstream reforms.
It added that increased domestic refining activity could further strengthen industrial output, reduce Nigeria’s dependence on imported refined petroleum products and improve the country’s external position.
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According to the NESG, manufacturing activity is also expected to maintain its growth momentum as lower inflation, continued exchange rate stability and improved foreign exchange liquidity ease production constraints and boost business confidence.
“Moreover, manufacturing activity is expected to sustain growth momentum as lower inflation, continued exchange rate stability, and improved foreign exchange liquidity ease production constraints and strengthen business confidence,” the group said.
Esther Ososanya is an investigative journalist with Pinnacle Daily, reporting across health, business, environment, metro, Fct and crime. Known for her bold, empathetic storytelling, she uncovers hidden truths, challenges broken systems, and gives voice to overlooked Nigerians. Her work drives national conversations and demands accountability one powerful story at a time.