The Alliance for Economic Research and Ethics has criticised the Presidency’s ‘Nigeria’s Energy Sector Reforms: A Three-Year Review (2023–2026)’ report, describing the document as a political communication exercise that overstates progress while overlooking major challenges facing the country’s energy sector.
In a statement titled ‘A House Built on Sand: The Illusion of Progress in Nigeria’s Energy Sector,’ the independent research and policy organisation challenged several claims contained in the review issued by the Office of the Special Adviser to the President on Energy and signed by Special Adviser Olu Verheijen.
The Presidency’s report presents the Tinubu administration’s energy reforms as a comprehensive reset of the sector, highlighting improvements in oil and gas investment, power sector financing, gas development, and the restructuring of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL).
However, the Alliance said its assessment of the review against what it described as independently verifiable data, audited financial statements, regulatory reports and industry testimony led it to a different conclusion.
“Our conclusion is unambiguous: the report functions primarily as a political communication instrument,” the organisation stated.
According to the Alliance, the review “cherry-picks peak figures to obscure persistent volatility, celebrates financial interventions that have not resolved underlying structural crises, and is entirely silent on the most consequential failures of the past three years.”
One of the group’s major criticisms concerns the government’s claim that oil production reached 1.6 million barrels per day in 2025 and represented the highest onshore production level in two decades.
The Alliance argued that the figure combines crude oil and condensate production, creating what it described as a misleading picture of actual crude oil performance.
“The 1.6 mmbpd figure combines crude oil with condensate,” the group said, adding that when crude oil is isolated, production performance appears significantly weaker.
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The organisation further argued that Nigeria’s failure to consistently meet production targets undermines the narrative of a sustained turnaround in the upstream sector.
On the government’s claim that Nigeria has reclaimed its position as Africa’s leading destination for oil and gas investment, supported by more than $10 billion in Final Investment Decisions (FIDs), the Alliance acknowledged improvements in the investment environment but argued that the report blurred the distinction between investment commitments and actual capital deployment.
“A Final Investment Decision is a corporate commitment to proceed with a project; it is not a cheque cleared,” the group stated.
It added that long-standing governance challenges remain unresolved and could continue to affect the conversion of investment announcements into real capital inflows.
The Alliance also challenged the government’s portrayal of progress in the power sector, particularly the Presidential Power Sector Debt Reduction Programme, which Verheijen described as “the most comprehensive financial intervention in the sector’s history.”
While acknowledging that the bond programme is real and that the first tranche has been disbursed, the group argued that the intervention does not address the deeper financial weaknesses of the sector.
According to the Alliance, the report presents “a partial intervention as a transformative solution, while concealing the depth of the crisis it is attempting to address.”
The organisation further criticised the review for failing to mention repeated national grid collapses and ongoing challenges affecting electricity supply and service delivery.
“What it does not mention, not once, is that the national electricity grid collapsed twice in January 2026 alone,” the report stated.
The Alliance said the omission raises questions about the completeness of the government’s assessment of power sector performance.
The group’s criticism extended to NNPCL, which the Presidency’s review presents as undergoing major reforms aimed at stripping it of “pseudo-policy and regulatory roles” and transforming it into a commercially focused company.
According to the Alliance, the report’s narrative of institutional reform fails to address significant financial pressures within the national oil company.
“It is a narrative of institutional transformation. It is also a narrative that omits the most consequential financial story in the Nigerian energy sector in 2025,” the group stated.
The organisation argued that a credible review of the sector should have addressed what it described as mounting intra-company debts within NNPCL and broader concerns about financial performance.
“A credible three-year energy review cannot be silent on these facts,” it said.
The Alliance also challenged claims of progress in gas utilisation and flare reduction, arguing that the government’s report conflates permit issuance with actual gas capture and utilisation outcomes.
Similarly, it questioned the review’s portrayal of subsidy reforms, saying the report presents electricity subsidy changes as improved targeting while failing to adequately discuss the implications of broader subsidy reductions on affordability for households and businesses.
While acknowledging that the government’s review identifies genuine reform objectives and presents a coherent policy framework, the Alliance maintained that the document falls short as an objective assessment of sector performance.
“It is not an honest policy assessment,” the organisation said. “It is a political document designed to communicate a narrative of success to domestic and international audiences.”
The Alliance concluded that energy sector reforms should be evaluated based on measurable outcomes rather than policy announcements.
“True energy sector reform cannot be measured by the volume of presidential directives or the elegance of bond structures,” it stated.
“It must be measured by kilowatt-hours delivered, barrels produced without condensate inflation, and naira saved by reduced generator dependence.”
The group warned that, by those standards, significant challenges remain across the sector.
“By these measures, Nigeria’s energy sector remains critically ill, and this report is a premature discharge summary,” it said.
As part of its recommendations, the Alliance called on the government to subject future energy sector reports to independent third-party verification, publish raw production and financial data, and adopt citizen-centred indicators as the primary measures of reform success.
“Nigerians deserve not just a better energy sector,” the organisation added. “They deserve an honest account of where it stands.”
Alex is a business journalist cum data enthusiast with the Pinnacle Daily. He can be reached via ealex@thepinnacleng.com, @ehime_alex on X