Dangote Warns Middle East Conflict Threatens Africa’s Economic Stability, Urges De-escalation

Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, has warned that Nigeria and the broader African continent will face severe economic consequences if the ongoing Middle East conflict continues to escalate.

Speaking on Monday after a courtesy visit and Eid-el-Fitr homage to President Bola Tinubu at his Ikoyi residence in Lagos, Dangote cautioned that while Nigeria has no direct role in the crisis, the deep interdependence of the global economy means the country will inevitably feel the impact.

“We are part of a global village, and unfortunately, developments like this will affect us even if we are not directly involved,” Dangote stated.

Rising Fuel Prices and Widespread Hardship

The industrialist warned that prolonged tensions in the Gulf region could trigger higher fuel prices, rising transport costs, inflationary pressures, and widespread hardship across African economies. Since the Iran-US-Israel conflict began on February 28, crude oil prices have surged above $100 per barrel, with Nigerians currently purchasing petrol at about N1,360 per liter as of Monday, up from N875 per liter before the conflict.

“If the situation does not de-escalate, we will end up paying a heavy price, especially given existing economic challenges,” Dangote said.

He emphasised that energy costs affect virtually every sector of the economy, noting: “Energy affects everything. From small businesses like barbers to industries running generators, everyone will feel the impact if costs continue to rise,”

Africa’s Debt Burden Could Worsen

Dangote expressed particular concern about the strain on African economies already grappling with significant debt burdens. He warned that escalating energy costs and global instability could further limit fiscal space and weaken economic resilience across the continent.

“Africa is already grappling with debt, and additional shocks will only compound hardship for governments and the people,” he said.

He added: “Africa is very busy paying debt, and putting this again on top of us is going to add a lot of hardship on people, on the government, on the people, on everybody, for something that we have no involvement in.”

Potential Return to COVID-Era Work Measures

The Dangote Group chairman pointed to possible global adjustments if the crisis persists, noting that some countries have already begun adopting coping strategies such as reduced workdays and remote working arrangements to manage energy demand.

“In some countries today, what they’ve done is ask everybody to work from home because they cannot afford it. I think Indonesians also only go to work four days a week. And they will look at the situation if it doesn’t improve, they will ask everybody not to go to work anymore,” Dangote stated.

He warned that such measures could reduce productivity, slow economic output, and severely affect livelihoods, particularly among vulnerable populations who depend on daily earnings.

“In Africa, in Nigeria, many people depend on daily earnings. If they don’t work, they don’t eat. So, we must pray that this situation comes down quickly,” he said.

Dangote Refinery Gains Strategic Advantage

Amid the crisis, Dangote’s 650,000-barrel-per-day petroleum refinery has emerged as a strategic player in the regional market. According to data from tanker-tracking firm Kpler, Nigeria’s exports of clean petroleum products have risen to about 214,000 barrels per day in March from an average of 100,000 bpd in February.

Shipments to other African countries have climbed to approximately 90,000 bpd from 38,000 bpd previously, with the refinery selling gasoline cargoes to Côte d’Ivoire, Cameroon, Tanzania, Ghana, and Togo.

The escalating Middle East conflict has pushed up global crude prices while shipping disruptions and lower fuel availability from Europe and the Gulf have cut flows of low-cost refined products into West Africa, creating opportunities for suppliers with shorter supply chains.

Positive Outlook on Nigeria’s Economic Reforms

Despite his concerns about the Middle East crisis, Dangote expressed optimism regarding President Tinubu’s recent state visit to the United Kingdom, describing the trip as having opened new economic opportunities and strengthened Nigeria’s investment outlook.

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He stressed that the £746 million infrastructure agreement supported by UK Export Finance is significant beyond its monetary value. “It’s not about the money. It’s about the confidence in Nigeria,” Dangote said.

The industrialist noted that Nigerian private sector players can now access international financing and technical support for large-scale projects through UK Export Finance, a resource that has historically remained underutilized by Nigerian businesses.

“Once confidence is established, other countries will come in. Germany will come, others will line up and start coming up. It is a signal that Nigeria is ready for business,” he stated.

Call for De-escalation

Dangote urged global leaders to prioritize de-escalation of the Middle East conflict, emphasizing that many Africans rely on daily earnings and remain highly exposed to economic shocks.

“We just need all hands-on deck to pray that this thing comes to an end,” the Dangote Group chairman stated.

He expressed hope that diplomatic efforts would succeed in stabilizing the region, warning that continued instability would have cascading effects on energy costs, government finances, and household consumption patterns across Africa.