The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has said the United States’ decision to impose a 12.5 per cent tariff on imports from Nigeria is unlikely to have a significant impact on the country’s export earnings or broader economy, as most Nigerian exports to the US are exempt from the new measures.
In a policy brief issued on Sunday, July 26, the Chief Executive Officer of CPPE, Dr Muda Yusuf, said the new tariff regime is a continuation of the reciprocal tariff policy introduced under the Trump administration, although it is now being implemented under a different legal framework.
According to the CPPE, the previous reciprocal tariffs were invalidated by the courts, prompting the US government to restructure the policy under Section 301 of the US Trade Act, using allegations of forced labour as the legal basis.
“The current measures appear to have been restructured under Section 301 of the U.S. Trade Act, with allegations relating to forced labour providing the statutory basis for their implementation,” the policy brief stated.
It added that although the legal basis had changed, the objective remained the same: “protecting U.S. domestic industries, strengthening American manufacturing competitiveness and advancing broader U.S. trade and economic interests.”
Pinnacle Daily had earlier reported that Nigeria was among 60 countries affected by a new round of US import tariffs that took effect on Friday, July 24, as President Donald Trump’s administration tightened its trade policy with duties of up to 12.5 per cent on imports from major trading partners.
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In its policy brief, CPPE, however, said Nigeria’s exposure to the new tariffs is limited because crude oil, liquefied natural gas and other petroleum products, which account for more than 80 per cent of the country’s merchandise exports to the US, noting that these products have been exempted from the tariff measures.
“The products affected account for only a small proportion of Nigeria’s total exports, while the dominant export category to the US remains outside the scope of the tariffs,” it said.
The group also noted that the United States is not Nigeria’s largest export destination. It cited Nigeria’s first-quarter 2026 merchandise trade statistics, which showed that total exports stood at about ₦21.6 trillion, with exports to the United States accounting for only 5.56 per cent.
By comparison, India accounted for 13.09 per cent of Nigeria’s exports during the quarter, followed by France with 9.29 per cent, the Netherlands with 9.22 per cent and Spain with 7.68 per cent, making the United States the country’s fifth-largest export market.
CPPE said these trade patterns would significantly reduce the country’s exposure to the new tariff regime.
While acknowledging that some non-oil exporters, particularly in agriculture and manufacturing, could become less competitive in the US market, it maintained that the overall effect on export earnings, foreign exchange inflows and macroeconomic performance would be modest.
“This is essentially a question of materiality,” the policy brief stated.
Beyond the immediate impact, CPPE said the latest tariff decision reflects a wider shift in global trade policy towards greater protectionism and the increased use of trade measures to advance domestic economic interests.
The organisation said the changing global trade environment underscores the need for Nigeria to diversify its exports, strengthen manufacturing competitiveness, increase domestic value addition and deepen regional trade under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
It also urged the government to improve labour standards, strengthen supply chain transparency and engage the United States through diplomatic and trade channels to seek clarity on the implementation of the new tariff measures and reduce their impact on affected exporters.
“Overall, while the new U.S. tariffs have generated understandable concern, their direct economic implications for Nigeria should not be overstated. The greater challenge lies not in the immediate loss of export opportunities, but in navigating an increasingly fragmented and protectionist global trading environment,” the CPPE added.
Alex is a business journalist cum data enthusiast with the Pinnacle Daily. He can be reached via ealex@thepinnacleng.com, @ehime_alex on X