Global crude oil prices surged on Tuesday as escalating unrest in Iran, coupled with potential supply disruptions, overshadowed expectations of increased crude output from Venezuela.
Brent crude futures rose $1.06, or 1.7%, to $64.93 a barrel by 0934 GMT, marking their highest level since mid-November. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed $1.02, or 1.7%, to $60.52 a barrel.
Market analysts say oil investors are pricing in geopolitical risk, with concerns spanning Iran, Venezuela, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and Greenland-related supply considerations.
John Evans, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates, noted, “The oil market is building in some price protection against geopolitical drivers,” highlighting Iran’s potential exclusion from supply, issues in Venezuela, and ongoing global tensions.
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Iran, one of OPEC’s top producers, is witnessing its largest anti-government protests in years, following a severe crackdown that rights groups say has killed hundreds and led to thousands of arrests. U.S. President Donald Trump warned of possible military action and announced a 25% tariff on any country trading with Iran, escalating geopolitical concerns.
Geopolitical tensions have also boosted Brent crude’s premium over the Middle East benchmark Dubai, reaching levels not seen since July. Barclays analysts estimated that Iran unrest alone has added $3–4 per barrel in geopolitical risk premiums to oil prices.
Markets continue to monitor Venezuela’s oil exports. Following the political ouster of President Nicolas Maduro, the U.S. indicated that Caracas may release up to 50 million barrels of oil, subject to Western sanctions, providing a potential supply boost. Global trading houses have moved quickly to secure Venezuelan crude, positioning ahead of U.S. energy majors.
READ ALSO: Venezuela to Export Up to $2 Billion in Oil to U.S. in Landmark Deal
Trump’s tariff announcement on Iran’s trading partners adds a new layer of uncertainty. Iran exports much of its oil to China, while other top partners include Turkey, Iraq, the UAE, and India. Analysts from ING questioned whether the U.S. would risk additional trade friction with China amid a recent trade truce.
Despite potential Venezuelan supply increases, analysts say ongoing unrest in Iran and broader geopolitical uncertainties continue to support oil prices.
Esther Ososanya is an investigative journalist with Pinnacle Daily, reporting across health, business, environment, metro, Fct and crime. Known for her bold, empathetic storytelling, she uncovers hidden truths, challenges broken systems, and gives voice to overlooked Nigerians. Her work drives national conversations and demands accountability one powerful story at a time.
