Analysts at Financial Derivative Company (FDC) led by economist Bismark Rewane have said Nigeria’s latest trade figures highlight both the fragility of its oil reliance and the potential of its broader economy.
In Q2 2025, crude oil earnings slumped by over ₦3 trillion, despite higher production.
By contrast, non-oil exports surged 107% to ₦18.4 trillion in the first half of the year, boosted by refined petroleum, gas, manufactured goods, and solid minerals.
The expert also projects the naira to strengthen in the near term, trading between ₦1500/$ and ₦1,520/$. This is due to a weaker dollar arising from the Fed’s dovish stance.
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“A stronger naira is favourable for lower inflationary pressures. We expect headline inflation to
continue its disinflationary trend to fall to 21.4% in August from 21.88% in July. This would be its fifth consecutive monthly decline.”
For decades, oil has dominated Nigeria’s export earnings, leaving the economy exposed to global price swings.
According to the analyst, with Brent prices projected to ease further in the fourth quarter, the urgency of building alternative export pillars has never been greater.
They noted that the rise in manufactured and mineral exports suggests early progress toward diversification, a necessary step if Nigeria is to build resilience and attract investments.
Still, the scale of non-oil exports remains small relative to petroleum, and sustaining momentum will require stable policy, infrastructure upgrades, and competitive industries
Breaking the Cycle – Sustaining Reform for Accelerated Growth
They argued that Nigeria’s growth path has been tepid and below potential, held back by structural rigidities—low productivity, unstable currency, and an epileptic power supply.
They said the crisis has forced some reforms, but discipline must be sustained to avoid the familiar vicious cycle of poverty.
They posit that economic managers need a short list of priorities with the highest inter-sector linkages.
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Also included in the prioritisation package should be competitiveness, inflation reduction, and job creation. Three game changers stand out. First is the Dangote Refinery & Petrochemical Complex, which will reduce fuel imports, strengthen fiscal buffers, and stimulate investment. Second is the Highway Development and Management Initiative, aimed at lowering logistics costs and connecting farms to markets. Third is a comprehensive overhaul of the power sector—spanning generation, transmission, and distribution.
There is also the potential of diversification into solar, hydro, and other renewable energy—to unlock industrial potential.
They said Nigeria must resist complacency and ideological backsliding as a result of reform fatigue.
Like the Asian Tigers in the last century, progress requires constant upgrading from cost advantage to quality and innovation. Without sustained discipline, early gains will fade
However, with discipline and focus, Nigeria will likely achieve accelerated and sustainable economic growth, they said.
Sunday Michael Ogwu is a Nigerian journalist and editor of Pinnacle Daily. He is known for his work in business and economic reporting. He has held editorial roles in prominent Nigerian media outlets, where he has focused on economic policy, financial markets, and developmental issues affecting Nigeria and Africa more broadly.
