Nigeria’s business landscape continued its remarkable recovery in November 2025, posting its 11th consecutive month of expansion and reinforcing expectations of a stronger finish to the year.
The latest Business Confidence Monitor (BCM) released by the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) shows that business confidence climbed marginally to 113.3 points, up from 111.3 points in October, and significantly higher than the 97.3 index points recorded in November 2024.
This steady upswing, analysts say, reflects easing inflationary constraints, renewed commercial activity, and improved sectoral performance, most notably an unexpected boom in the Trade sector, which delivered its strongest showing in over a year.
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According to the NESG, all five major economic sectors remained firmly in the expansion corridor during the month. But it was Trade that stole the spotlight.
The sector surged by 71.1 index points, rising from 115.5 to 186.5 points, marking the most substantial monthly increase since the BCM tracking began this year.
This resurgence was driven by:
- Pre-holiday stockpiling
- A rebound in wholesale and retail activities
- Higher consumer mobility
- Improved supply availability
- Stabilised exchange-rate conditions that moderated import costs
Other sectors also held strong:
- Non-Manufacturing: 117.0
- Manufacturing: 114.2
- Services: 105.8
- Agriculture: 103.3
Although these sectors expanded at a slower pace than the Trade boom, the NESG emphasises that broad-based improvement signals a gradually healing operating environment.
Key Business Indicators Improve But Cost of Doing Business Still Bites
One of the most encouraging aspects of the November performance is the improvement recorded across key BCM sub-indices.
Indicators such as:
- General business situation
- Production
- Financial conditions
- Supply orders
- Trade stockpiling
- Access to credit
- Cash flow
All posted better outcomes compared to October 2025.
But the gains came with a caveat.
The cost of doing business, which historically weighs down operations, continued to rise, though at a slower pace. Persistent headaches such as:
- High commercial borrowing costs
- Inflation-driven input expenses
- Unclear policy signals
- Epileptic power supply
- Transport disruptions
- Ongoing insecurity
continued to limit how much firms could take advantage of the favourable season.
Still, the NESG notes that the easing rate of increase in input costs is “a sign of gradual stabilisation”.
The BCM’s November reading points to a more optimistic environment for investment inflows, business expansion, and capital formation.
The NESG believes that the combination of:
- Improving cash flow
- Higher stockpiling
- Better credit access
- Expansion in all five sectors
-
Increased external trade activity
could position businesses to end the year stronger and launch into 2026 with renewed confidence, provided inflation remains contained and security does not deteriorate.
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November traditionally marks the beginning of heightened business activity due to:
- Festive season preparations
- Increased household consumption
- Rising trade volumes
- Bulk manufacturing orders
- Agricultural supply pressures
This year’s performance is especially important because the surge reflects genuine business activity, not just seasonal pressure.
The NESG’s performance index chart shows a stable rise since January 2025, suggesting that businesses may have finally begun adjusting to the post-reform environment that initially triggered volatility in late 2023 and throughout 2024.
Economic experts reviewing the report warn that Nigeria must guard the progress jealously.
The top concerns include:
- Insecurity on key trade corridors
- High borrowing rates despite moderated inflation
- Weak electricity supply threatening production costs
- Exchange-rate uncertainty lingering beneath the surface
“These structural issues continue to erode productivity,” a senior NESG analyst noted, adding that “sustained government intervention is essential to convert this temporary momentum into long-term growth.”
The NESG BCM is one of Nigeria’s most reliable real-time business indicators. Its November reading contains three powerful signals:
-
Confidence is returning; businesses are no longer in survival mode.
- Trade is becoming a major growth driver, offering new opportunities for SMEs and retailers.
- The economy may be turning a corner, even though structural challenges remain stubborn.
This positions Nigeria for a potentially stronger economic outlook heading into the first quarter of 2026.
The November 2025 BCM paints a cautiously optimistic picture:
Nigeria’s businesses are not just stabilising—they are pushing toward expansion.
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The challenge now is whether policymakers can sustain this momentum by addressing the fundamental issues that continue to burden operators.
If they do, 2026 could be Nigeria’s most promising year of business recovery in recent times.
Esther Ososanya is an investigative journalist with Pinnacle Daily, reporting across health, business, environment, metro, Fct and crime. Known for her bold, empathetic storytelling, she uncovers hidden truths, challenges broken systems, and gives voice to overlooked Nigerians. Her work drives national conversations and demands accountability one powerful story at a time.
