Nigeria’s Reserves Drop $1.18bn in One Month Amid CPI, Oil Risks

Nigeria’s gross external reserves have come under sustained pressure over the past month, shedding more than $1.18 billion between March 11 and April 9, 2026, amid persistent market interventions and rising global uncertainty.

Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) shows the reserves declined from a peak of $50.03 billion on March 11 to $48.85 billion by April 9, representing a 2.36 per cent drop over the period.

The slide was marked by a consistent day-to-day depletion, with no recorded gains throughout the timeframe.

The reserves slipped below the $50 billion threshold as early as March 13, falling to $49.97 billion, and continued on a downward trajectory through the end of the month, closing March at $49.24 billion, about $789 million lower than where they started.

Pressure intensified in April, with reserves dropping below $49 billion on April 7 and extending losses to $48.85 billion by April 9.

Within just two days, between April 7 and April 9, the reserves declined by an additional $93.67 million, underscoring the pace of drawdown.

The latest figures confirm that the March 11 level remains the highest recorded so far in 2026, with reserves failing to recover since crossing the $50 billion mark.

Looking ahead, the Head of Market Research at FXTM, Lukman Otunuga, warned that the pressure on reserves reflects broader efforts to stabilise the naira amid external shocks.

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“Its stability through conflict-induced volatility is commendable, but such has come at a heavy cost. Nigeria’s foreign-exchange reserves have fallen for 16 consecutive days through April 8, falling to their lowest since mid-Feb at $48.94 billion.

“The CBN followed its pledge to defend the local currency in March as deepening geopolitical risk punished emerging market assets.”

He added that despite the reserve drawdown, the naira has shown relative strength, emerging as the second-best-performing African currency against the dollar year-to-date, behind the Zambian kwacha.

Attention this week is expected to shift to inflation data, with Nigeria’s consumer price index (CPI) report for March in focus.

Otunuga believes that easing price pressures could shape monetary policy expectations.

“Nigeria’s CPI is expected to have eased to 13.4% yoy from the 15.1% in February. Persistent signs of easing inflationary pressures may encourage the CBN to cut rates in an environment where other central banks are considering hiking to tame conflict-induced inflation,” he said.

Global developments, particularly tensions involving the United States and Iran, are also expected to influence market sentiment.

“Despite a marathon 21 hours of negotiations, both sides were unable to agree on key issues, including Iran’s nuclear programme and its control of the Strait of Hormuz,” Otunuga said.

He noted that renewed geopolitical risks have already unsettled markets.

“Given how Iran has rejected US restrictions on shipping and threatened Gulf ports, sentiment remains fragile and highly sensitive, with markets on high alert.

“It’s worth noting that the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since late February, raising the risk of inflation and growth shocks that threaten the global economy,” he said.

Notably, oil markets have reacted sharply, with prices surging on supply concerns.

“Deepening conflict may keep oil prices elevated, with triple digits potentially becoming a new normal amid extreme supply tightness,” Otunuga maintained.

He added that gold remains under pressure despite recent rebounds, he said, “Given how expectations have basically diminished over lower rates in 2026, gold is likely to remain on the backfoot with a stronger dollar keeping bears in the game. Key levels of interest can be found at $4825, $4700 and $4600.”

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