The Russia-Ukraine war, changing political decisions in the United States and rising global tensions are reshaping how Nigerian banks manage risk.
This global turmoil is pushing the banks to rethink everything from loan quality and collateral values to cybersecurity and liquidity planning, Pinnacle Daily can report.
A review of 2025 audited financial reports of 11 Nigerian banks shows that global political events are no longer treated as distant developments with limited local impact.
Instead, banks are increasingly building geopolitical uncertainty directly into their core risk models.
The banks reviewed — Access Holdings, Ecobank, Fidelity Bank, First HoldCo, GTCO, Jaiz Bank, Stanbic IBTC, Sterling Financial Holdings, UBA, Wema Bank and Zenith Bank — all elevated geopolitical risks in their 2025 risk assessments, signalling a growing shift in how the sector views global instability.
At the centre of the concern is credit risk, which indicates the danger that borrowers may struggle to repay loans in an increasingly volatile global economy.
Fidelity Bank disclosed that uncertainty linked to the Russia-Ukraine war was incorporated into its expected credit loss models, effectively changing how it predicts bad loans.
This reflects a broader industry move in which geopolitical developments now influence lending assumptions and borrower risk ratings.
Major lenders including Zenith Bank, GTCO and First HoldCo also identified political instability and geopolitical tensions as key warning indicators in their credit risk reviews.
The analysis further shows that the changing risk environment is also affecting how banks value collateral backing loans.
Fidelity Bank said it factored in the wider effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the United States’ global political direction, including Middle East tensions, when assessing the value of assets pledged by customers.
This signals a deeper concern within the industry, as global conflicts can quickly weaken asset prices, disrupt markets and reduce the recovery value of collateral during financial stress.
For banks, the issue is no longer only whether a borrower can repay, but whether the security behind a loan would still hold value during periods of geopolitical turbulence.
Pinnacle Daily had in previous reports documented how Nigerian banks wrote off over ₦4 trillion in bad loans in 2025, which shareholders said was a cause for concern.
Geopolitics Expands Beyond Credit Risk
Similarly, the impact of global instability is extending beyond lending into market risk, operational resilience and cybersecurity.
Wema Bank warned that instability in global energy and commodity markets is raising market risks and placing additional strain on businesses exposed to imports, exports, fuel costs and foreign exchange pressures.
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Its warning highlights the indirect transmission channels through which wars and political disputes affect Nigerian banks.
Even without direct exposure to conflict zones, banks remain vulnerable through customers whose businesses depend on global trade flows, commodity prices and currency stability.
The banks’ financial reports show that cybersecurity has emerged as another major battleground.
Access Bank said geopolitical conflicts, combined with increasingly sophisticated artificial intelligence-driven cyber threats, shaped the cybersecurity landscape in 2025.
In response, banks strengthened digital defences and adopted intelligence-driven security systems to safeguard operations and customer data.
This concern is growing even though most of the banks reported limited direct losses from major cyber breaches.
Zenith Bank reported zero direct cybersecurity breach losses for the third consecutive year, while Access Holdings disclosed no direct losses from cyber attacks or electronic fraud categories despite recording 1,448 attempted cyber fraud incidents.
But underlying fraud pressure remains strong as Wema Bank reported losses of ₦10.89 million from internet fraud and ₦750,000 from mobile banking fraud.
Sterling Bank’s fraud and forgery losses more than doubled to ₦1.66 billion in 2025 from ₦810.94 million in 2024.
Access Holdings cut total fraud losses to ₦1.24 billion from ₦1.69 billion a year earlier, while Wema Bank recorded ₦847.6 million in fraud-related losses.
GTCO said fraud and cybersecurity-related losses declined in 2025, although it did not disclose figures.
Regulatory pressure is also intensifying as Zenith Bank paid a ₦74 million penalty for late reporting of cybersecurity incidents, while Stanbic IBTC was fined ₦56 million for failing to report cyber incidents within the required timeframe set by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
Banks Prepare for Worst-Case Scenarios
Another clear trend emerging from the reports is the increasing use of stress testing tied to geopolitical shocks.
UBA and Wema Bank said they assessed their resilience against adverse global scenarios that could tighten liquidity conditions, weaken borrowing environments and reduce foreign investment flows into emerging markets such as Nigeria.
The growing focus on stress testing suggests banks are preparing for a world in which wars, trade tensions and political disputes can quickly spill into financial markets and banking balance sheets.
Despite the heightened caution, the banks maintained confidence in their overall financial stability.
Fidelity Bank said it did not expect the Russia-Ukraine war or political developments in the United States to materially affect its liquidity position, while Access Bank maintained that the global economy remained resilient despite trade restrictions and geopolitical tensions.
For Nigerian banks, geopolitical shocks are no longer background noise, they are becoming central drivers of risk management, credit decisions, cybersecurity planning and financial resilience, as the analysis shows an industry adapting to a new reality.
Alex is a business journalist cum data enthusiast with the Pinnacle Daily. He can be reached via ealex@thepinnacleng.com, @ehime_alex on X