As Governor Ademola Adeleke settles into the Accord Party after abruptly leaving the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the central political question in Osun State is whether the governor can secure a second term on the platform of a smaller political party.
Pinnacle Daily examines the road ahead, drawing on historical precedents, recent political manoeuvres, and expert analysis.
Adeleke’s Exit From a Party in Turmoil
Adeleke’s resignation from the PDP on 4 November marked the collapse of a fraught relationship between the governor and a party grappling with deep leadership crises.
By the time ward congresses were aborted, delegate elections halted, and the governorship primary suspended, Adeleke’s camp concluded that the PDP no longer had the organisational capacity to field a valid candidate before INEC’s 15 December deadline.
The governor’s letter to his Sagba Ward 2 chairman blamed the national leadership crisis for his departure. Party insiders confirmed that his repeated appeals for clarity on the primary timetable yielded no assurances. Instead, factionalism widened.
With a fractured structure and collapsing pre-primary processes, Adeleke moved quietly to secure his political future.
His spokesperson later disclosed that the governor had actually resigned nearly a month before the news became public, an indication of the strategic nature of the move.
Why Adeleke Chose Accord Party
Amid the PDP’s implosion, Adeleke explored other options. He held meetings with President Bola Tinubu in Lagos, an encounter widely interpreted as part of a possible move to the APC. But that plan collapsed when former governor and APC leader Gboyega Oyetola refused to concede automatic party control or a guaranteed 2026 ticket.
The ADC, now heavily influenced by former governor Rauf Aregbesola, also closed its doors to Adeleke, as the governor was unwilling to enter a party where another power bloc had already settled on a preferred candidate.
The Accord Party, however, extended an open invitation. Its leaders openly stated they would welcome Adeleke and his structure.
This became the governor’s most viable platform, prompting him to formally join the party on 6 November, weeks before announcing it publicly.
Analyst Jide Ojo: “It’s Premature to Say Adeleke Can Win on Accord”
Political analyst Jide Ojo, speaking with Pinnacle Daily, said it is too early to predict whether Adeleke can retain power under Accord, noting that the outcome will depend on shifting political variables and the strength of opposition forces.
He described Adeleke as a political “veteran” who has contested three major elections, winning two and losing one narrowly.
“He won his Senate seat after completing his brother’s term. He lost his first governorship bid marginally. Many believe he won that election but was rigged out. And on his second attempt, he won,” Ojo said.
He added that Adeleke’s experience makes him a formidable contender even under a smaller platform.
APC vs Accord: The Fierce Battle Ahead
Ojo projected a heated contest between the APC and Accord Party, pointing out that Adeleke will run on his achievements but must confront federal political realities.
“Whether President Tinubu will look away and allow Osun to go to the opposition when he will be seeking re-election in 2027 is another matter,” he said.
He noted that APC’s internal crisis, once seen as an advantage for Adeleke, has been resolved, with screened-out aspirants endorsing Oyebamiji ahead of the primary. This, he argued, positions APC as a cohesive challenger.
The PDP’s major defections, including Senator Fadahunsi’s movement to the APC, further weaken Adeleke’s former party and tighten the race.
“It will not be a free ride for Adeleke,” Ojo cautioned.
Did Adeleke Hurt His Own Chances by Leaving PDP?
Commenting further, Ojo said Adeleke’s move to Accord could either be strategic or self-sabotaging, depending on how well he rebuilds the party’s structure around his political machinery.
“PDP is a house of confusion,” he said, citing the party’s failures in Anambra and Ondo.
He referenced Olusegun Mimiko’s 2007 victory, where Mimiko left PDP, joined the then obscure Labour Party, and defeated an incumbent governor within four months.
“It can happen again. If properly funded, with vibrant offices across wards and local governments, nothing stops Accord from winning.”
Osun’s Political Awareness: Adeleke’s Advantage
Ojo highlighted Osun’s politically conscious electorate, noting that voters do not always follow ethnic or federal sentiments.
He recalled how Osun voted for Atiku Abubakar in the 2023 presidential election despite Tinubu being a South-West candidate.
“Osun people are politically aware and not swayed by the fact that their son is in the presidency,” he said.
This, he noted, may work in Adeleke’s favour if Accord successfully mobilises voters.
Accord Party’s Limitations and the Road Ahead
Despite Accord’s enthusiasm, its limited structure means Adeleke must rapidly consolidate his network within the party. Analysts warn that while his personal popularity is strong, party machinery remains crucial during elections.
The APC appears united and determined to reclaim Osun. The PDP, now without its most influential figure, has fractured further, conducting a controversial primary where Adedamola Adebayo emerged winner—but with questionable legitimacy.
With the December 15 INEC deadline approaching, the political field is shifting. Adeleke’s structure, funding capacity, incumbency advantage, and Accord’s readiness will determine the trajectory of Osun’s 2026 election.
Can Adeleke Win Under Accord?
The answer remains uncertain. His personality, popularity, and incumbency give him a strong base. The APC’s unity strengthens the opposition. The PDP’s collapse creates a vacuum he could exploit. Accord offers him the platform but not yet the political machinery.
As Ojo summed it up, “It’s going to be a tough one. Too early to predict. The strength of APC and the organisational capacity of Accord will determine everything.”
Rafiyat Sadiq is a political, justice, and human rights reporter with Pinnacle Daily, known for fearless reporting and impactful storytelling. At Pinnacle Daily, she brings clarity and depth to issues shaping governance, democracy, and the protection of citizens’ rights.
