Nigerians Mark 2026 Eid Celebration amid Food Price Surge

​As the crescent moon ushered in the 2026 Eid-el-Fitr celebration on Friday, March 20, millions of Nigerian Muslims gathered at prayer grounds across the country, but behind the vibrant displays of traditional Baban riga and Iro ati Buba, a sobering reality shadowed the festivities. There is a sharp resurgence in food prices that has left many Sallah baskets lighter than usual.

​For the first time in a decade, Nigeria had briefly recorded a single-digit food inflation in January 2026 (8.89 per cent). However, that reprieve proved short-lived as new data released by the  National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows food inflation climbed back to 12.12 per cent in February, fueled by a combination of Ramadan stockpiling and rising logistics costs. 

​Market Realities

When Pinnacle Daily correspondent visited the bustling Mile 12 Market in Lagos on Thursday, March 19, the festive air was thick with the scent of live livestock, tomatoes, and fresh peppers and among others, yet traders and buyers alike painted a picture of what seems like a calculated celebration due to rising food costs.

Pinnacle Daily’s checks revealed that a 50kg bag of rice, mostly consumed during the Eid feast, now averages ₦62,000 for long grain, up from about ₦55,000 in January, while short grain is currently sold at ₦54,000 against ₦49,000 previously. 

A 50kg bag of beans was previously sold between ₦45,000 and ₦48,000 but is now selling between ₦60,000 and ₦65,000, depending on the quality and brand. A 110kg bag, which formerly sold between ₦95,000 and ₦100,000, has now risen to ₦125,000.

In an interview with Pinnacle Daily, a trader in the market, Mr. Sunday Eze, said they have witnessed an increase in prices of food items, especially rice, beans, and tomatoes, in the last one month, which he attributed to the Ramadan fast. “For about one month now, the prices of beans and rice have gone up a little bit,” Mr. Eze, who is the chairman of the Rice and Beans Sellers Association in the Mile 12 market, stated.

​A basket of tomatoes has jumped to between ₦41,000 and ₦50,000, depending on the size and quality, against the previous price of between  ₦25,000 and  ₦30,000. “Tomatoes are somehow scarce now, and people are buying them every day to cook, causing the price to rise,” said Musa, a tomato seller at the Mile 12 market during an interview with Pinnacle Daily.
He attributed the drop in tomato supply to a reduction in farming activities by farmers in the north, who have been fasting during the Ramadan period, coupled with logistical challenges. 

He said the price might come down after the feast when farmers return to farming fully. He, however, expressed concern that the recent surge in fuel prices might lead to a further increase in transport costs, making the hope of price stabilisation dim.

Pepper & Onions: Prices for these essentials have also increased in many cases, with a bag of pepper reaching ₦46,000 in some markets. A large bag of onions formerly sold at ₦70,000 is now ₦80,000. 

Vegetable oil: A 25-litre keg of vegetable oil is now between ₦59,000 and ₦67,000, depending on brand. A 5-litre plastic container sells between ₦16,000 and ₦17,000, 3 litres between ₦10,000 and ₦11,000, and 1 litre between ₦3,000 and ₦4,500.

Beef & Chicken: A kilogram of beef now costs about ₦8,500, and a medium-sized frozen chicken is sold for between ₦7,500 and ₦8,500.

​A bag of maize is currently selling at ₦45,000 for yellow maize, while white maize is about ₦40,000 to ₦42,000. 

”We are celebrating, Alhamdullilah, but the pots are smaller this year,” said Alhaja Aminat, a mother of four, who resides in the Isolo area of Lagos. “In January, we thought the worst was over. Now, to make a simple pot of Jollof rice, you have to choose between the meat or the extra bag of sachet water,” she added.

​The Ramadan Effect and Global Headwinds

​Economists have attributed the sudden spike in prices of food items to “aggressive bulk-buying” during the holy month, which commenced in mid-February. The post-harvest stability of late 2025 was further shaken by external shocks, such as the renewed tensions in the Middle East, which have pushed up global energy prices, trickling down to the cost of transporting produce from Nigeria’s northern food basket to the southern markets.

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Despite the recent 50 basis point cut in Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) to 26.50 per cent—a sign of the Central Bank’s growing confidence—the reality on the ground remains fragile. While headline inflation has moderated to 15.06 per cent from the staggering highs of over 30 per cent in 2024, the food basket remains the most volatile component of the Nigerian economy.

Resilience Amidst Scarcity

​Despite the pinch, the spirit of the “Feast of Breaking the Fast” remains unbroken. In Lagos, Abuja, Kano and other parts of the country with significant Muslim population, the tradition of Zakat al-Fitr (charity) saw a noticeable shift toward communal feeding programmes as wealthier neighbours stepped in to support those hit hardest by the price hikes. Cooked food packages were often distributed to the less privileged in different areas at the end of the fast on a daily basis during the Ramadan period.

​The Federal Government, having declared Thursday and Friday as public holidays, urged citizens to remain hopeful. In a statement, the Minister of Interior encouraged Nigerians to “sustain the virtues of sacrifice and peace,” even as it acknowledged the “temporary” inflationary pressures.

​Mr Eze highlighted the challenges of traders in conveying goods from the northern part of the country to Lagos, lamenting that bad roads, the cost of transportation, and all kinds of charges imposed on transporters have significant effects on their business. He said things might get worse after Raman if nothing is done about the rising fuel prices across the country.

“Formerly, we used to pay ₦6,000 per bag, but now we pay ₦7,000. The way it is going, after this Ramadan, and if this fuel crisis continues, there is every tendency that the cost of transport will further go up,” Eze stated.

 

“Some of the challenges we have are bad roads and the high cost of transport. Sometimes our vehicles fall off the road. There is a particular place in Niger State where the road is so bad. Our vehicle always falls there,” Eze stated.

On the illegal charges by touts on the roads, he called on the government to diligently implement the new tax laws by closing those multiple toll points and creating a designated account where transporters and business people can pay taxes to give them relief. 

“I think that if the government can carry out this tax reform, I believe it will be better and cheaper because people pay a lot of money on the road, and there are no receipts for all that money and it doesn’t enter the pocket of the government,” he stated. 

“When you go out, even here in Lagos, you see them collecting all manner of taxes, even some of our boys that carry small loads inside wheelbarrows here to go and drop at Ketu, they pay a lot of money on the road. Just a load of maybe ₦1,000, they will be spending around ₦400 on the road to Ketu here, and all that money is not going into the pocket of the government,” he added.

Risks of another Inflation Spike

In their commentary on Nigeria’s inflation in February, analysts at Cardinalstone said Nigeria faces risks of inflation spike due to the ongoing war in the Middle East, which has had a spillover effect on the energy market. As of Friday, March 20, Brent crude is trading at $110 per barrel, a 1.37 per cent increase from the previous price, while the U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has reached $95.90, according to Oilprice.com. This is moving close to the levels witnessed at the peak of the Russian-Ukrainian war in 2022.

“The first-order effects of the elevated oil prices are higher PMS, AGO, and jet fuel prices,” the CardinalStone analysts stated. The retail fuel pump price of fuel has gone up to as high as N1,300 per litre. Similarly, jet fuel prices, which make up to 40.0% – 45.0% of airline expenses, scaled from N900.00/litre to c.N1,800.00/litre, leading to an increase in the cost of domestic flights. The prices of other energy-related products like AGO and cooking gas have also risen sharply.

The analysts further stated that their analysis suggests that a 10.0 per cent increase in energy prices (diesel and PMS) will result in a 0.7 per cent increase in Month-on-Month headline inflation, suggesting risk to price stability in the coming month.

On the impact of higher energy prices on food and transport inflation, the firm said: “We see a potential risk of higher food prices from March 2026, depending on how long the war persists and how high oil prices reach.”

As the Muslim faithful celebrate Eid, the prayer on most lips isn’t just for peace, but for a return to the market stability that briefly teased the nation in recent months.