The United States significantly reduced its imports of Nigerian crude oil in January 2026, with volumes falling by 47.2 per cent compared to December 2025, reflecting a new trajectory of trade relationship between the advanced nation and the West African country.
According to recent data released by the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. crude imports from Nigeria fell from 3.149 million barrels in December 2025 to 1.664 million barrels in January 2026, reflecting a reduction of 1.485 million barrels within a single month.
The month-on-month decline in U.S. crude imports from Nigeria occurred despite a nearly 6 per cent increase in Nigeria’s domestic oil production, which reached 1.64 million barrels per day in January from 1.55 million barrels per day in December.
Also, the figures from the U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report reveal that the value of these imports also reflected the decline. While Customs value fell from $217.36 million in December 2025 to $115.99 million in January 2026, the cost, insurance, and freight (CIF) valuations also dropped from $223.10 million to $118.95 million.
Nigeria’s share of total U.S. crude imports weakened from 1.59 per cent in December to just 0.88 per cent in January.
Key Factors Behind the Decline
Analysts believe that the contraction in Nigeria’s market share in the U.S. is driven by a combination of regional competition and shifting trade policies.
Regional Competition: While total African crude exports to the U.S. remained relatively flat, Nigeria lost ground to its neighbors. Angola saw a massive jump from 575,000 barrels to over 2.06 million barrels, and Ghana emerged as a significant new supplier with 738,000 barrels.
Refinery Feedstock Shifts: Nigeria’s own Dangote Refinery has ramped up operations, reportedly dominating in supply to the domestic market and even importing U.S. light sweet crude (over 42 million barrels in 2025) as a preferred feedstock.
U.S. Trade Policy: Analysts point to renewed protectionist rhetoric and tariff-focused policies under the current U.S. administration, which have influenced global sourcing decisions and pricing structures.
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Geopolitical Volatility: Ongoing conflict in the Middle East—specifically disruptions involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz—has caused global price spikes (Brent crude rising above $100 per barrel), forcing refineries to adjust their sourcing based on logistics and cost.
Economic Impact
The trade shift has noticeably flipped the balance of trade between the two countries. While the U.S. crude import volume dropped by 47.2 per cent and the customs value down by 46.6 percent from $217.36 million to $115.99 million, the U.S. trade balance with Nigeria rose to $419 million (Surplus) from $84 million in December. The shift was driven by a surge in American exports to Nigeria, climbing from $381 million to $602 million, even as imports from Nigeria fell sharply.
The decline in Nigerian crude imports occurred amid a broader slowdown in U.S. oil demand. Total U.S. crude imports fell by 5.1 per cent month-on-month, from 198.29 million barrels in December to 188.21 million barrels in January.
Despite the January slump, Nigeria remained Africa’s dominant crude supplier to the U.S. in 2025, accounting for 52.2 per cent of the continent’s crude exports to America (46.618 million barrels out of 89.371 million barrels).
Commenting on the development, Dr. Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), downplayed the impact of U.S. trade policies on Nigeria. According to him, “Our trade with the US is not that strategic. When anything goes wrong, it is not as if it can have any fundamental effect on our economy.”
However, he identified structural weaknesses in Nigeria’s trade profile, noting that the country’s heavy reliance on crude oil exports and limited diversification remain significant long-term challenges.
Victor Ezeja is a passionate journalist, scholar and analyst of socioeconomic issues in Nigeria and Africa. He is skilled in energy reporting, business and economy, and holds a master's degree in Mass Communication. He can be reached via @VICTOREZEJA on X
