There are concerns that Nigeria’s progress toward becoming a refining hub and achieving energy self-sufficiency has come under threat as domestic crude supply shortages have led to a surge in imports in recent months.
While domestic production of refined petroleum products has surged over the past two years, a sharp drop in local crude supply and a massive spike in imports are threatening the viability of the country’s refineries.
Pinnacle Daily’s analysis of data released by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) showed that crude oil imports jumped 12.5 times in four months, from 0.41 million barrels in April to 5.13 million barrels in July 2026.
Within the same period, crude oil supply to local refineries from domestic producers dropped by 29 per cent from 17.96 million barrels to 12.75 million barrels.
The NMDPRA report shows an intermittent decline in domestic supply of crude to local refineries. A look at the trajectory of crude oil supplies this year shows that the 17.96 million barrels in April has been the peak so far. It first dropped to 15.84 million barrels in May, rose to 17.08 million barrels in June, and fell by 25.4 per cent to 12.75 million barrels in July.
This forced local refineries to resort to imports. From 0.41 million barrels in April, it rose to 2.08 million barrels in May, dropped slightly to 2.04 million barrels in June and surged by 151.5 per cent to 5.13 million barrels in July.
Pinnacle Daily reports that the July figure marks the second-highest imports this year. The country recorded the highest imports of 9.43 million barrels in March. This followed 4.25 million barrels of imports in February.
The total crude received by the domestic refineries had risen to 19.12 million barrels in June from 17.92 million barrels in May, and then declined to 17.88 million barrels in July. This means that imported crude accounted for 28.7 per cent of total crude receipts by domestic refineries in July, while domestic supplies contributed the remaining 71.3 per cent.
The data showed that crude imports were 0.71 million barrels in January before rising to 4.25 million barrels in February and 9.43 million barrels in March. It plunged significantly in April to 0.41 million barrels before rising to 2.08 million barrels in May.
On the other hand, domestic crude supply to refineries stood at 8.83 million barrels in January, rose slightly to 8.88 million barrels in February, 11.49 million barrels in March and the peak 17.96 million barrels in April.
Despite holding massive crude oil reserves and housing world-scale refining infrastructure, domestic refiners—most notably the 650,000 barrel-per-day Dangote Petroleum Refinery—are increasingly forced to source feedstock from foreign markets to maintain operations.
The refinery has been importing crude in large volumes to augment supplies from domestic producers.
Domestic refiners have continued to raise concerns about the shortage of crude oil supply to their refineries, forcing reliance on imports to make up the required feedstock.
In an interview last week, Vice Chairman of the Crude Oil Refiners Association of Nigeria (CORAN), Dolapo Okulaja-Kotun, highlighted challenges domestic refineries are facing in getting crude oil feedstock supply, pricing and delivery logistics.
Okulaja-Kotun, who is the Executive Director of the Ikwe–Ona Refinery, located in Akwa Ibom State, said the inability of domestic refineries to get adequate feedstock supply is significantly affecting their output in terms of refined petroleum products.
“So right now, what is happening in Nigeria is not that the refineries cannot produce, but they are not getting enough feedstock to enable them to refine into the products that are needed in the country,” she stated.
Why Domestic Supply is Slipping
Some analysts have said Nigerian crude, which should be feeding local refineries, is increasingly being sold on the export market instead. They noted that producers apparently have an incentive to export rather than sell domestically, which squeezes the very refiners the “Naira-for-crude” and domestic supply framework was meant to support.
The knock-on effect on fuel imports
The development in crude supply has a knock-on effect on petrol supply. NMDPRA report shows that petrol supplied by domestic refineries fell by 37.83 per cent in three months, from 41.5 million litres per day in May to 25.8 million litres per day in July.
In the same period, petrol imports have risen by 233 per cent from 5.9 million litres per day in May to 19.7 million litres per day in July. Total petrol supplied to the Nigerian market in July dropped by 10 per cent to 45.5 million litres per day from 50.6 million litres per day in June. Imports therefore accounted for 43.3 per cent of total petrol supplied to the market in July, while domestic supplies contributed the remaining 56.7 per cent. This is against 12.4 per cent market share of imported petrol in May.
The resurgence of imports came as NMPDRA granted fuel import licences to some marketers in recent months, which has elicited reactions from industry stakeholders.
The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) warned that the surge in fuel imports threatens domestic refining and could halt refinery expansions, delay modular refinery projects, and signal policy risk to foreign investors.
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In a policy brief released over the weekend, signed by its CEO Dr Muda Musuf, CPPE stressed that it makes no economic sense to allow indiscriminate imports of fuel when local refineries can supply products of acceptable quality and quantity at a competitive market price.
The centre warned that allowing fuel imports could displace domestic refining, which holds a critical position in the industrialisation drive as it provides fuels and feedstocks for petrochemicals, plastics, fertiliser, pharmaceuticals, paints, packaging and other manufacturing chains.
“Where local refiners can supply products of acceptable quality, quantity and competitive market price, indiscriminate import licensing weakens investment, jobs, foreign-exchange conservation, industrialisation and national energy security,” CPPE stated.
It argued that import is only meant to close gaps and not create displacement of domestic refineries.
It emphasised that even the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) Sections 317(8) and (9) only consider petroleum-product import licensing in the context of a domestic supply shortfall and warned that regulatory discretion should, therefore, be exercised transparently, predictably and consistently with the country’s domestic-refining and industrialisation objectives.
It urged NMDPRA to always determine the exact supply gap and restrict import permits to bring in volumes that cover it.
Victor Ezeja is a Nigerian journalist skilled in producing insightful news analyses, feature stories, and interviews that simplify complex issues and drive informed public discourse. His work combines rigorous research, balanced reporting, and compelling storytelling to highlight developments shaping industries and society. Victor, who holds a Master's Degree in Mass Communication, specializes in energy, aviation, business, and economic reporting. He can be reached via @VICTOREZEJA on X