WTO Forecast Bleak Trade Growth in 2026 on Trump's Tariff Effect

Share on Facebook Share on LinkedIn

The World Trade Organisation (WTO) has projected that countries will experience bleak trade growth in 2026 as the impact of the United States (US) President Donald Trump’s tariff kicks in.

It gave the forecast on Tuesday, October 7, as it published its updated global trade outlook.

While the WTO raised its forecast for trade volume growth in 2025 to 2.4 per cent, up from 0.9 per cent in August, it, however, cut its 2026 outlook from 1.8 per cent to 0.5 per cent.

“Global merchandise trade outpaced expectations in the first half of 2025, driven by increased spending on AI-related products, a surge in North American imports ahead of tariff hikes, and strong trade among the rest of the world,” the WTO said.

The WTO has revised its estimates several times this year due to uncertainties surrounding the impact of the new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.

Since returning to office in January this year, US President Trump has slapped several waves of new tariffs on imports entering the United States.

His administration has imposed a basic tariff of 10 per cent on all countries since April, with much higher rates for some economies.

Pinnacle Daily reports that the US President has imposed a 15 per cent tariff on imports from Nigeria, which has raised concerns among the federal government and is prompting a search for alternative measures.

“Countries’ measured response to tariff changes in general, the growth potential of AI, as well as increased trade among the rest of the world — particularly among emerging economies — helped ease trade setbacks in 2025,” the WTO Director-General, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, was quoted as saying.

Okonjo-Iweala, a former Nigerian finance minister, warned that trade resilience this year should not fool countries into “complacency”.

“Today’s disruptions to the global trade system are a call to action for nations to reimagine trade and together lay a stronger foundation that delivers greater prosperity for people everywhere,” she added.

The WTO’s global gross domestic product (GDP) growth projection is 2.7 per cent this year and 2.6 per cent in 2026.

Post Views: 260