Qatar’s Energy Minister, Saad Al-Kaabi, has issued a stark warning that oil prices could hit $150 per barrel if the ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to disrupt vital energy supplies.
This warning comes after conflicts sparked by a joint military attack on Iran led by the U.S. and Israel escalated, spreading through the Middle East region over the last one week.
The escalating tension has caused significant volatility in global energy markets as oil prices have seen a sharp surge in the last five days. This has been compounded by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a major oil and gas shipping route between the Persian Gulf & the Gulf of Oman, controlled by Iran.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) declared the strait “closed” and threatened to set ablaze any ship attempting to pass. Analysts estimate that approximately 20 million barrels of oil (roughly 20-30 per cent of global seaborne oil) pass through the strait daily. This act has significantly disrupted global crude oil supply.
While other parts of the world depend on imports coming through the route, the UAE and Saudi Arabia have pipelines that allow them to move oil without crossing the strait.
However, analysts have noted that closing the strait might raise global prices for products and services while also affecting some of the world’s largest economies, including China, India, and Japan, which are among the major importers of crude oil moving through the waterway.
Speaking in an interview with Financial Times, Al-Kaabi said that crude prices could reach $150 a barrel within two to three weeks if tankers remain unable to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
He also warned that natural gas prices could climb to $40 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), nearly four times pre-war levels.
Al-Kaabi predicted that if the conflict continues, all Gulf energy exporters will be forced to halt production and declare “force majeure” (a legal clause freeing them from contractual liability) within days to weeks. “All exporters in the Gulf region will have to call a force majeure,” he stated.
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Qatar was forced to halt Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) production at its largest facility, Ras Laffan, after it was hit by an Iranian drone strike. The minister noted that it would take weeks to months to restore normal deliveries even if the war ended immediately.
Broader Economic Impact
The minister warned that such an energy crisis could “bring down the economies of the world,” impacting global GDP growth and causing shortages that lead to a chain reaction of factory closures.
The market has already reacted strongly. Brent Crude has risen to $91.32, while the United States’ West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has reached $88.54 per barrel on Friday afternoon. For Brent Crude, this is about a 25.31 per cent surge when compared with the closing price of $72.87 per barrel on Friday, February 27, 2026, before the hostilities started. The price movement represents the strongest weekly surge since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Impact on Nigeria
For Nigeria, analysts have observed that the effect is like a double-edged sword. While the hike in price of crude oil, especially above its 2026 budget benchmark, means a gain for the country, it, however, leads to high domestic prices of petroleum products such as Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), also known as petrol, and Automotive Gas Oil (diesel).
Already, Dangote Refinery has increased its ex-depot price of petrol by N100 from N774 to N874 per litre. Depot owners, major marketers and retailers have increased prices, with the pump price of petrol now between N939 and about N1,000 per litre, depending on location in the country.
Victor Ezeja is a passionate journalist, scholar and analyst of socioeconomic issues in Nigeria and Africa. He is skilled in energy reporting, business and economy, and holds a master's degree in mass communication.
