Despite the windfall recorded in the last two months of 2026 due to a global oil price surge, Nigeria has, however, recorded a loss of about ₦2.2 trillion in projected oil revenue.
While Brent crude prices have surged above $100 per barrel, data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) reveal that production fell significantly below the 1.84 million barrels per day (bpd) budget benchmark.
Out of 108.6 million barrels expected production in line with the 2026 budget target, the nation recorded approximately 92 million barrels of crude oil and condensate production, reflecting a shortfall of 16.6 million barrels in January and February.
According to the NUPRC data, crude oil and condensate stood at an average of 1.63 million barrels per day in January, about a 210,000 bpd shortfall in the first month of the year. The shortfall rose significantly in February to about 360,000 bpd as total output (crude oil and condensate production) in the second month dropped to an average of 1.48 million bpd. The crude component fell from an average of 1.46 million bpd in January to about 1.31 million bpd in February.
At an average of $100 per barrel, the 16.6 million barrels shortfall means that the country lost about $1.6 billion in two months. At the current exchange rate of ₦1,383 per dollar, this translates to approximately ₦2.2 trillion.
READ ALSO:
Nigeria’s Crude Oil Output Rises in January but Misses OPEC Quota
Middle East Tensions: Concerns as Fuel Prices Rise in Nigeria After Oil Price Surge
NNPC Records ₦60.5trn Revenue, ₦5.7trn Profit in 2025
This is even as the current oil price far surpassed the $64.85 per barrel oil price benchmark in the 2026 budget.
In a recent report, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited indicated a sharp 47 per cent decline in monthly revenue in January, dropping from ₦4.82 trillion in December 2025 to just ₦2.57 trillion.
While the geopolitical tensions involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran have pushed global oil prices high, Nigeria’s ability to cash in has been sabotaged.
As oil has remained the major source of foreign exchange earnings for the country, analysts have observed that the massive shortfall in oil revenue has sent shockwaves through the Federation Account, leaving state and local governments facing a tighter-than-expected budget season while the world’s other oil producers celebrate a historic windfall.
A total of ₦1.969 trillion was disbursed to the three tiers of government – federal government, states and local councils – as revenue from the Federation Account in December 2025. However, ₦1.894 trillion was shared among the Federal, states and local government councils in February, reflecting a decrease.
The drop in oil production has often been attributed to a combination of factors, including security issues, aging infrastructure, theft, vandalism, and logistics. NNPC had, in its previous monthly reports, cited issues of facility maintenance at major fields as the cause of the drop in production. The January report said the reduction in planned deliveries in early 2026 was caused by evacuation constraints and bad weather.
While Nigeria remains the largest oil producer in Africa, it has continued to underperform both in terms of meeting its annual budget targets and the quota set by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). In terms of the OPEC quota, Nigeria has consistently missed the target for about seven months.
Pinnacle Daily had reported that Nigeria lost an estimated ₦24.47 trillion in two years due to an oil revenue shortfall.
The Federal Government has maintained its resolve to ramp up oil production to over 2 million barrels per day. The NUPRC and NNPC have indicated their intention to increase oil production through fast-tracking approvals for the re-commencement of production from dormant oil wells. The NUPRC said it has reduced the approval time for permits to restart existing but inactive wells from weeks to hours. The NNPC GMD, Bayo Ojulari, said the company is targeting to add about 100,000 barrels per day capacity this month.
In all of these, industry analysts have warned that without a radical overhaul of pipeline security and community engagement, the country will continue to lose oil revenue due to low output.
Victor Ezeja is a passionate journalist, scholar and analyst of socioeconomic issues in Nigeria and Africa. He is skilled in energy reporting, business and economy, and holds a master's degree in Mass Communication. He can be reached via @VICTOREZEJA on X
