Nigeria’s Inflation Projected at 15.48% in November

Nigeria’s headline inflation is expected to drop to 15.48 per cent in November but to spike over 30 per cent in December.

United Capital Research forecasts this in its ‘Inflation Watch’ report released on Wednesday, November 3.

The anticipated moderation will be driven by a slight reduction in the prices of selected food items and premium motor spirit (PMS).

”United Capital Research forecasts that Nigeria’s headline inflation rate will decline further to 15.48% in November 2025 from 16.05% in October 2025,” the report stated.

Pinnacle Daily can report that headline inflation eased for the seventh consecutive time to 16.05 per cent in October.

This decline reflected the rebasing of the consumer price index (CPI) by the National Bureau of Statistics early this year.

The report stated that, although the average exchange rate appreciated in November compared with October, the value of the Naira depreciated when assessed using month-on-month closing values.

“These exchange-rate dynamics influenced the prices of some food commodities,” it said.

Local rice, garri, and maize prices drop

It pointed out that the average prices of food items were mixed in November 2025 compared with October 2025.

While some food items recorded price declines, a few experienced marginal increases, and others remained stable.

“This assessment is based on United Capital Research’s survey of selected food items during the month.

“Specifically, the prices of Garri, Local Rice, and Maize declined by 0.38%, 27.6%, and 21.72% respectively.

“Conversely, the price of imported rice rose by 2.4%, while the prices of Beans, Sorghum, and yams remained broadly stable within the same range,” it stated.

Decline in crude oil, PMS prices

The report also noted that the average price of Bonny Light crude oil declined marginally by 1.41 per cent to $65.22 per barrel in November 2025. It was down from $66.15 per barrel in October.

Similarly, retail pump prices of PMS across major filling stations it monitored in November fell from ₦922 per litre at the end of October to ₦910 per litre in the first week of November.

“The average retail price moderated further to around ₦900 per litre by month-end, following price reductions by Dangote Refinery.

“This decline in PMS prices helped ease inflationary pressures on sensitive sectors, particularly transportation, hospitality, and food services, during the month.

Influence of exchange rate on some food prices

The report noted that the Naira depreciated against the United States dollar by 1.84 per cent on a month-on-month basis.

It appreciated by 1.07 per cent when measured using the monthly average between October and November 2025.

It said the exchange rate, which closed at ₦1,421.73/$1 in October, ended November at ₦1,448.44/$1.

“Meanwhile, the average exchange rate moderated from US$1/₦1,459.54 in October to US$1/₦1,444.07 in November 2025.

“This monthly average appreciation of the Naira against the US Dollar had a positive pass-through effect on the local prices of some imported items,” the report stated

Why inflation will spike in December

As anticipated in the report, inflation in December is expected to spike to over 30 per cent and ease to around 20 per cent in January 2026.

“Our analysis indicates that the December 2025 headline inflation rate may exceed 30%. This surge is not due to an actual spike in consumer prices during the month but rather results from the statistical adjustment of the base year—December 2024—to 100 points when the Consumer Price Index was rebased.

“Inflation is expected to ease to around 20% in January 2026, with a further decline to single-digit levels projected by Q4 2026. This moderation in inflation in Q4 2026 is likely to have a positive effect on yields in the fixed-income market,” the report added.

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