Nigeria’s ambition to achieve investment-grade sovereign credit status by 2030 will depend on its ability to turn ambitious economic projections into stronger revenue, productive investment and sustainable public finances.
The warning comes as the government targets annual economic growth of 10.34 per cent by 2030, despite recording average growth of 3.11 per cent under the National Development Plan 2021–2025, below its 4.65 per cent target.
Minister of State for Budget and Economic Planning, Doris Uzoka-Anite, stated this in a keynote address at the 2026 International Credit Rating Webinar organised by DataPro Limited on Thursday, October 8.
She said Nigeria’s investment-grade ambition must rest on stronger economic fundamentals rather than the rating itself, with fiscal discipline, debt sustainability, productivity and credible institutions central to attracting long-term capital.
“Investment grade should be the outcome of stronger economic fundamentals, sustainable public finances, improved debt dynamics, rising productivity, stronger external buffers and credible institutions, not an end in itself,” she said.
Under the proposed National Development Plan 2026–2030, government revenue is projected to rise from 11.15 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025 to 18.70 per cent by 2030.
Capital expenditure is also expected to increase from 36.03 per cent to 57.43 per cent of total government spending over the same period.
The plan projects public debt to decline from 36.07 per cent of GDP in 2025 to 18.83 per cent by 2030, while the Federal Government’s debt-service-to-revenue ratio is expected to fall from 62.93 per cent to 21.01 per cent.
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Uzoka-Anite cautioned that these projections would depend on sustained growth, prudent borrowing and effective fiscal management.
She said borrowing should support investments that expand productive capacity rather than worsen fiscal pressures.
The plan also targets average real GDP growth of 7.79 per cent between 2026 and 2030, with the private sector expected to account for about 72 per cent of cumulative investment.
Achieving these goals, she said, would require better infrastructure, reliable energy supply, improved access to finance, regulatory efficiency and predictable policies.
The government also needs to ensure that economic reforms translate into lower production costs, jobs and improved living standards.
She disclosed that the Federal Ministry of Budget and Economic Planning was institutionalising a National Macroeconomic Dashboard to track growth, inflation, revenue, debt, investment and employment, while a Macroeconomic Assumptions Standing Committee had been established to assess key economic indicators.
Earlier, Founder of DataPro Limited, Abimbola Adeseyoju, said sovereign credit ratings had become a major influence on how countries attract capital and finance development.
“Credit rating is no longer a passive measure of risk; it is now a catalyst for economic transformation,” he said.
Adeseyoju identified fiscal sustainability, deeper and more transparent capital markets, and rating methodologies that recognise the realities and growth potential of African economies as priorities for improving the continent’s credit standing.
He added that achieving investment-grade status would require deliberate policy execution, sound market infrastructure and stronger cross-border collaboration.
Alex is a business journalist cum data enthusiast with the Pinnacle Daily. He can be reached via ealex@thepinnacleng.com, @ehime_alex on X