What Elon Musk’s SpaceX IPO Could Mean for the Nigerian Exchange

When SpaceX debuted on the Nasdaq in June, the historic listing did more than make Elon Musk the world’s first trillionaire on paper.

It instantly added more than $2 trillion to the value of companies traded on the Nasdaq exchange and demonstrated how a single corporate giant can reshape a stock market.

For Nigeria, the bigger question is not whether another record-breaking global IPO will emerge. It is what would happen if some of the country’s largest companies — NNPC Limited, Dangote Refinery, BUA Refinery, major electricity distribution companies (DisCos), generation companies (GenCos), and other critical infrastructure firms — all found their way to the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) within the next few years.

The answer could fundamentally change the size, depth and influence of Nigeria’s capital market.

Today, the NGX is Africa’s second-largest stock market with a market capitalisation of about $116.9 billion.

Yet the market remains small relative to the size of Nigeria’s economy, which was rebased to N441.5 trillion in 2025.

One reason is that many of the country’s most valuable assets remain outside the public market.

The Giants Missing From The Market

Unlike many developed markets, where some of the largest companies are publicly traded, several of Nigeria’s biggest economic assets remain privately held or government-owned.

NNPC Limited, Dangote Refinery, the incoming BUA Refinery, major GenCos and DisCos, and other strategic infrastructure businesses collectively represent hundreds of billions of naira in economic value that are currently unavailable to public investors.

This means pension funds, retail investors and foreign portfolio managers have limited opportunities to invest directly in some of the sectors driving the country’s economy.

The impact of bringing even one of these companies to the market could be significant.

Bismarck Rewane, managing director of Financial Derivatives Company (FDC), recently projected that the proposed listing of Dangote Petroleum Refinery alone could raise the NGX’s market capitalisation from N161 trillion to N236 trillion under a scenario where the offering attracts fresh capital into the market.

“In a ‘pure addition’ world, the NGX would jump from N161 trillion to N236 trillion at listing, and the ASI would re-rate proportionately,” Rewane was quoted to have said.

He estimated that the refinery’s targeted valuation of $50 billion could add between N60 trillion and N75 trillion to the market.

If one company can potentially increase market value by more than 40 per cent, the combined effect of multiple mega listings could be transformational.

Beyond Market Capitalisation

The real impact would extend beyond headline market value, as a larger stock market means more liquidity, deeper trading activity and a wider range of investment opportunities.

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It also gives pension funds more quality assets to invest in and provides foreign investors with additional large-cap stocks capable of attracting significant capital inflows.

The experience of MTN Nigeria’s public listing in 2021 provides a local example.

The telecommunications giant immediately became one of NGX’s largest stocks, expanding the investable universe and increasing the exchange’s profile among international investors.

Analysts argue that listing more large companies would strengthen the entire financial ecosystem by improving price discovery, broadening ownership and lowering the cost of raising long-term capital.

Matthew Ogagavworia, a financial analyst, had told Pinnacle Daily that the effect on the market would be immediate.

“For the capital market, it will mean that investors will have more stocks to trade daily on the stock market with market capitalisation swelling by the value of the listed stock of the NNPC when they get listed,” he said.

The implications could be especially important for the power sector, where access to long-term financing remains a major challenge.

“As of today, if you need money for the long term, the capital market is the way to go,” Ogagavworia said.

“The capital market offers that veritable avenue where people can come and buy shares and wait for those businesses to turn around and begin to pay dividends.”

For power companies struggling with debt burdens and infrastructure funding gaps, the stock market could provide an alternative source of capital for expansion and modernisation.

Why NNPCL Could Be The Game Changer

Among all the potential listings, NNPC Limited stands out as the most consequential.

The Petroleum Industry Act 2021 envisages a commercially driven national oil company, even as the NNPCL has delayed its listing and its new management, saying that it is working towards a stock market listing by 2028.

An NNPCL public listing would not only add substantial value to the market, but it would also subject the company to stricter disclosure requirements, regular reporting obligations and greater scrutiny from investors.

Supporters of public offerings argue that listing encourages transparency, strengthens corporate governance and broadens ownership.

David Adonri, a capital market operator, said wider public ownership would be one of the major benefits.

“If they do an IPO and get more shareholders, they will have enough reason to list,” he said.

“The federal government will want to see that its own shareholding after coming to the market will be reduced, with the public holding more shares than the government.”

That principle has been demonstrated elsewhere.

Saudi Aramco’s landmark stock market debut not only raised billions of dollars for Saudi Arabia but also forced one of the world’s largest oil companies to embrace greater transparency and international reporting standards while opening ownership to public investors.

The same argument is increasingly being made for strategic Nigerian assets.

Pinnacle Daily reported that the NGX Group Chairman, Umaru Kwairanga, had last year called for the listing of state-owned enterprises, including NNPC, describing the proposed Dangote Refinery listing as “a natural progression in the Dangote Group’s journey towards transparency, market leadership, and inclusive wealth creation”.

A Stronger Market Could Emerge

No one can accurately predict how much the NGX would be worth if NNPC Limited, Dangote Refinery, BUA Refinery, major DisCos, GenCos and other infrastructure firms all became publicly traded within the next few years.

What is clear, however, is that the exchange would look dramatically different from the market investors know today.

The addition of several multi-billion-dollar companies would significantly increase market capitalisation, deepen liquidity, attract foreign capital, create more investment opportunities and improve access to long-term financing for critical sectors of the economy.

SpaceX’s listing showed how one company can reshape an exchange almost overnight.

Nigeria’s opportunity may be even bigger if some of the country’s largest economic assets finally open their doors to public ownership; the NGX could move from being a large African market to becoming one of the continent’s dominant investment destinations.

The question is no longer whether these listings would matter. It is whether Nigeria can unlock the value that remains outside its stock market and bring it into the hands of millions of investors.